BIG MARLEY’S UFC ON ESPN+ 4 DRAFT KINGS FANTASY BREAKDOWN
This weekend, we have a 13-fight card in Kansas on ESPN+. DraftKings has some solid contests considering this is a free card and I look forward to pursuing the GPPs. The most important GPP is a $15 buy and $25k goes to 1st place with a total of 100k being paid out. They also have a Qualifier for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for that competition and they’ll compete for a $50k first location cost and that $175k will probably be distributed between all 100 admissions that qualify. I won my first chair into it a few weeks ago and I will try to receive my 2nd seat this week if possible. Those Qualifier only contests can be actual bankroll suckers therefore be careful chasing those overly hard. I’ll likely stick to the top GPP this week and then throw a small number of entries at the $25k prize, and then I will likely take a few shots in the Q. I will also be publishing H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs throughout the week to receive a good amount of drama into cash games.
With that said, let’s get to a couple plays I like this week Together with my fade of this week:
Money Game play of this week — Yana Kunitskaya — $8,900
There really aren’t any cash game locks this week for me personally but I moved with Yana because I fully expect this fight to go all 3 rounds so that I like the ground she brings to the table. In addition, I think she wins the battle and I believe she will be the fighter going for takedowns. I really don’t know how large her ceiling is in money games it does not really matter too much since we don’t have to hit 1st place in a double-up. I would anticipate about 10x from Yana at a decision win and I will take that day in my cash games.
GPP play of the week — Louis Smolka — $8,300
Smolka fights often score highly because there are a great deal of scrambles and all the grappling improvements really accumulate. I expect this is a very fun fight, but it should be Smolka that is the one going for the takedowns. I am always looking for no less than 10x in my fighters and also at $8.3k I would be amazed if Smolka didn’t get that with a win. The lowest he’s ever scored in a win is 99 DK points and he’s scored 162 vs Nguyen and he has a 61-point reduction to Elliott that’s more DK points than Schnell’s triumph over Beltran. I adore Smolka as a GPP play here and if he wins I would expect near 100 DK points.
Underdog drama of this week — Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos — $8,000
To get a fight I expect to stay standing, I have quite a lot of curiosity in this fight. I believe it’s going to be an action-packed fight and I think somebody gets knocked out. This is also the mid-range struggle of the week, so that I think a KO from either guy would have a good chance to put them on the optimal lineup. I enjoy it even more because I am choosing the underdog to get the knockout and that I expect Millender to be the greater owned fighter. I’ll have this fight in more than half my lineups, but I shall most likely have at least twice the ownership on dos Santos over Millender. I believe it is a much better GPP struggle than it is for money games, but I think dos Santos is in play for money since he’s an underdog and that I have him winning. I really don’t feel confident in many underdogs this week, however I will have a good amount of vulnerability to dos Santos.
Fade of this week — Anthony Rocco Martin ($9,200)
At $9.2K. Martin will need a finish at that wages and I don’t see that happening. When he wins a definite 30-27 decision, then he likely scores mid 70’s and at his price tag that won’t win anybody a GPP. I don’t believe he goes for takedowns in this matchup and I think he utilizes his wrestling to help keep the fight standing. Even if he does move for takedowns then I do not see him submitting Moraes. So, it needs to be a KO from him to pay off that salary and I am not willing to take this risk with my cash. That is why he’s my fade of this week.
Thank you for reading this and decent luck this weekend! If You’d like my own full-card breakdown where I breakdown every struggle about the card and provide my full DraftKings analysis, in Addition to all of my pick predictions, you can find that for just $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are offered at that link as well. I’m 61-37 to get +209.69 (+$20,969) because May 19th on Premium Plays)
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